Will Freight Rates Increase in 2025?

Will Freight Rates Increase in 2025?

March 11th 2025 | by Harper Johnston | 3 Min Read

What’s Driving Freight Rates in 2025?

Freight rates don’t move randomly—several major factors influence whether they go up or down. Here are the key ones to watch:

1. Supply and Demand Imbalance

  • Ocean freight: The market is seeing a significant increase in shipping capacity, with more vessels being delivered. However, demand growth is expected to not quite grow at the same level. This means there may not be enough demand to absorb the extra capacity, potentially leading to lower ocean freight rates.
  • Air freight: Air cargo has seen 14 consecutive months of double-digit growth, mainly fueled by e-commerce demand. While this growth is expected to continue, stakeholders remain cautious due to geopolitical risks and economic conditions.

2. Global Economic Conditions

  • Consumer confidence remains uncertain, affecting overall trade volumes.
  • Potential new tariffs and trade restrictions—especially in North America—could disrupt freight movement and affect costs.
  • The impact of fuel prices remains a wildcard, as any major fluctuations will directly influence shipping and trucking costs.

3. Regulatory and Geopolitical Changes

  • The U.S. government is considering new trade policies that could impact global shipping rates.
  • The Red Sea crisis and rerouting of ships around Africa have already driven up costs for some trade lanes.
  • E-commerce tax regulations could affect air cargo demand, especially if changes to the $800 tax-free import limit in the U.S. take effect.

4. Market Competition and Shipping Alliances

  • The new Gemini Alliance (Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd) is aiming to improve schedule reliability and efficiency, which could stabilize ocean freight rates.
  • Air cargo markets are experiencing increased capacity due to more aircraft being converted for freight use, which could help ease price pressures.

Will Freight Rates Go Up or Down?

The answer depends on which sector you’re looking at:

Ocean Freight Outlook

📉 Rates may drop due to oversupply, but geopolitical issues or fuel price hikes could push them back up.

Air Freight Outlook

📈 Rates may stay high due to strong e-commerce demand, but competition and capacity increases could limit drastic price hikes.

Trucking & Last-Mile Delivery

📊 Rates could fluctuate based on fuel costs and driver shortages, but overall stability is expected.

How Businesses Can Prepare for 2025 Freight Rate Changes

  1. Plan Ahead & Lock in Rates
    • If you’re worried about price increases, consider securing long-term freight contracts to lock in stable rates.
  2. Use Technology to Monitor Rates
    • Freight rate management tools like Accurate provide real-time pricing updates, helping businesses adjust to market changes quickly.
  3. Optimize Supply Chains
    • Consolidate shipments, explore alternative routes, and diversify carrier options to mitigate cost risks.

FAQs About Accurate

What is Accurate?

Accurate is a freight rate management tool that simplifies rate maintenance, ensuring businesses always have the latest, most accurate shipping costs.

How does Accurate help businesses save money?

By centralizing and automating freight rate calculations, Accurate helps businesses react quickly to price changes and ensures they get the best possible rates.

Does Accurate work with both ocean and air freight?

Yes! Accurate supports all shipping modes, including sea, air, road, and rail.

Can Accurate integrate with my existing logistics software?

Absolutely. Accurate can integrate with TMS, ERP, and quoting systems, making it easy to manage shipping rates without disrupting your current workflow.

Final Thoughts

While 2025 may bring some freight rate fluctuations, businesses that plan ahead and use smart technology will be better prepared. Ocean freight could see some rate drops, while air freight remains steady or slightly higher due to demand.

The best approach? Stay informed, use technology like Accurate, and be flexible with your shipping strategy.

👉 Want to take control of your freight costs? Start using Accurate today and ensure you’re always getting the best possible shipping rates!